Vil prisen på nye energikjøretøyer øke i 2022?
Den siste statistikken fra China Automobile Association viser at i november i år nådde produksjonen og salget av nye energikjøretøyer henholdsvis 457,000 og 450,000 med en markedspenetrasjonsrate på 17,8 prosent , hvorav penetrasjonsraten for nye energi-personbiler nådde 19,5 prosent. Fra januar til november var produksjonen og salget av nye energikjøretøyer 3,023 millioner og 2,99 millioner, en økning 1,7 ganger-til-år. Ouyang Minggao, en akademiker ved det kinesiske vitenskapsakademiet, spår at innenlandsk salg av nye energikjøretøyer vil nå rundt 3,3 millioner i år og 5 millioner neste år.
While the production and sales of new energy vehicles have risen rapidly, subsidies have also accelerated. According to the "Notice on Improving Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" jointly announced by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries in April 2020, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10 percent and 20 percent respectively on the basis of the previous year. percent , 30 percent . Although the detailed rules for the subsidy decline in 2022 have not yet been issued, more and more car companies are preparing for the further decline of the subsidy.
Noen populære-selgende modeller har begynt å øke prisene
24. november ble prisen på den bakre-hjuldrevne-versjonen av den innenlandske Tesla Model 3 og Model Y økt med 4 752 yuan, fra 250 900 yuan og 276,000 yuan til henholdsvis 255 652 yuan og 280 752 yuan. I motsetning til tidligere prisøkninger forårsaket av stigende råvarekostnader, er en viktig årsak til denne prisøkningen nedgangen i subsidiene. Det er forstått at gjeldende leveringstid for Model 3 og Model Y er i første kvartal 2022.
Tilfeldigvis har bilkjøpsrettighetene til tre modeller av Xiaopeng Motors siden 13. desember blitt redusert i ulik grad. Blant dem er P7-pakken med bilkjøpsrettigheter redusert med 5,000-10,000 yuan, P5 er redusert med 4,000 yuan, og G3i er redusert med 5000 yuan. Deretter kan du nyte metoden 0 rente eller lav rente. Bransjeinnsidere mener at i tillegg til begrensninger i forsyningskjeden, er nedgangen i subsidier en viktig grunn for Xiaopeng til å krympe sine bilkjøpsrettigheter.
Samtidig har nedgangen i subsidiene blitt en gimmick for bilselskapene for å stimulere forbruket. Den 7. desember skrev en ID.4CROZZ og ID.6CROZZ propagandaplakat offisielt utgitt av FAW-Volkswagen: Nedtellingen til den nasjonale subsidienedgangen, fra 1. januar 2022, vil det nye statlige energitilskuddet reduseres med 5400 yuan!
It is worth noting that in the face of the delay in order delivery and the further decline of subsidies due to the upgrade of the production line, NIO adopted the strategy of "paying for itself". Weilai said that users who paid a deposit to buy ES8, ES6, and EC6 before December 31 this year and purchased the car on March 31, 2022 can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the national subsidy standard in 2021, that is, the vehicle standard. Models with battery packs (75kWh) and long-life battery packs (100kWh) can still enjoy subsidies of 16,200 yuan and 18,000 yuan respectively. At present, the delivery cycle of NIO is about 2 months, that is, for users who book cars before the end of the year, the delivery time of new cars is all in 2022. That is to say, the price difference arising from the subsidy decline in 2022 will be borne by NIO.
In addition, Nezha car sales staff also said that as long as the vehicle is ordered this year, even if the pick-up time is next year, you can still enjoy this year's subsidy policy.
"There is a high probability that there will be no significant increase"
Ulike bilselskaper har ulik markedsmakt. For ledende bilselskaper har en liten prisøkning liten innvirkning på forventet salg; for bilselskaper i klatrestadiet vil de heller bære tapet enn å risikere nedgang i salget. . Politikken legger opp til at tilskuddsnormen for nye energikjøretøy i 2022 reduseres med 30 prosent med utgangspunkt i 2021, og det er siste året med tilskudd til nye energikjøretøyer. Så, vil nedgangen på 30 prosent i styrke føre til at et stort antall nye energibiler øker i pris?
"At present (new energy vehicle) sales have basically entered the market-oriented track, and subsidies have little impact. Although there are no subsidies, non-subsidy policies such as double credits, carbon emissions, and travel restrictions will still be used. At the same time, with the rise in oil prices, fuel Compared with electric vehicles, the cost of using a car increases. Therefore, the impact of the subsidy decline will not be too great." Ouyang Minggao believes.
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher on new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, said that whether new energy vehicles will usher in a price hike in 2022 depends on the game of various factors. "The negatives include tight battery supply, no more mature new battery routes to replace, difficulty in large-scale recycling and utilization of existing lithium-ion battery raw materials, and declining subsidies. The increase in the price of points, the reduction of the cost of other parts by car companies, and the disguised increase of profits by car companies in after-sales or OTA (over-the-air download) upgrades can also absorb some of the price increase factors."
In addition, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, also made it clear that in 2022, the price of new energy vehicles "is unlikely to increase significantly."
Bilselskaper vil innlede en ny runde med tester
It is understood that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been implemented since 2009, and it has been 12 years. In 2019, subsidies fell sharply, which led to the reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, the reshaping of the pattern, the sharp drop in sales, and the elimination of some car companies that depended on subsidies to survive. At present, my country's new energy vehicles have made great strides from policy-driven to market-driven, and the market penetration rate has been increasing. With the substantial increase in the cruising range of power lithium-ion batteries, the gradual improvement of charging infrastructure, and the support of various local preferential policies, consumers have The acceptance of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher. Under this development trend, the decline or cancellation of subsidies for new energy vehicles will be inevitable.
In fact, even if the price of vehicles does not increase, the pressure on car companies is increasing. Problems such as chip shortages and skyrocketing battery raw material prices have plagued car companies. The superimposed subsidy decline may further compress the profit margins of car companies, and car companies with low sales will fall into a more difficult situation. Chen Qingtai, chairman of my country's Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, pointed out that although non-subsidy support is still available, for the market, next year will be a "hurdle", and car companies will usher in a new round of tests.
"After the subsidy is withdrawn, the relevant technical rules such as battery energy density, power consumption per 100 kilometers, etc. are no longer required, and even if the battery replacement subsidy is canceled, the cost-effective models that meet the needs of users will develop better, and the head aggregation situation will also improve. It is easier to form." Cao Guangping said.
